'Straining at Gnats', Humphreys Job Numbers The Humphreys for Senate campaign has made the argument that 54,000 new jobs were created in Oklahoma City while Humphreys was mayor a central part of the campaign. However, as noted in a recent article in the Oklahoman, Humphreys 'overstated' the number of jobs created in Oklahoma City. As the article notes, the Humphreys campaign originally claimed to have created 54,000 jobs. The campaign now argues the number is closer to 38,000. That number may be overstated as well because it takes into account a greater area then just Oklahoma City. As the article notes:

However, the new number still greatly overstates the number of new jobs in the city over which Humphreys presided, because it accounts for employment in the entire Metropolitan Statistical Area. In the 2000 Census, the Oklahoma City MSA included six counties and cities such as Norman, Edmond, Midwest City, Moore, Guthrie and Shawnee.

Here is a map of the MSA areas in Oklahoma.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oklahoma City had 16,332 more jobs in October 2003 when Humphreys left office than it did in May 1998, when he became mayor.

People who would argue with him using job numbers for the metro area, he said, “are straining at gnats.”

In fact, even though the number of new jobs grew so did the unemployment rate.

In May 1998, Oklahoma City’s unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. By the time Humphreys left office last October, it had risen to 5.6 percent. For the metropolitan area, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 5 percent in the same period.

Humphreys reply:

Humphreys said in an interview that the unemployment rate in Oklahoma City was still probably lower than it was statewide and in the entire nation.

The Numbers:

In October 2003 the unemployment rate for Oklahoma City (5.5) was about the same as it was for the entire state (5.7). The Oklahoma City rate was lower then the national unemployment rate which was 6.0 in October 2003.

It is interesting to note that in October 2003 Oklahoma county had the third highest unemployment rate of the seven surrounding counties.

Pottawatomie County: 6.1
Lincoln County: 5.9
Oklahoma County: 5.5
Canadian County: 4.7
Logan County: 4.4
Cleveland County: 3.6
Kingfisher County: 3.0

What does it all mean? Well, to be fair to Humphreys he is correct is saying that the unemployment rate in Oklahoma City when he left office (5.5) was lower then the national unemployment rate for that same month (6.0). However, is it not legitimate for Humphreys to claim credit for creating 38,000 new jobs, since that number takes into account cities and counties beyond Humphreys jurisdiction. It would be similar to Brad Henry claiming credit for new jobs in Texas.

The true jobs number that Humphreys could claim credit for is 16,000. Although it is good news any time new jobs are created, it needs to be pointed out that the number of new jobs did not keep pace with the growing labor force, this is evidenced by the growing unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed workers in the labor force. To be considered as a part of the labor force individuals must be actively seeking employment. This means that the number of people actively seeking employment that could not find employment grew during Humphreys tenure. Humphreys may need to start straining at some other gnats and not rely on his "jobs record" to carry him through the primaries and to the Senate.   ¶ 12:33 AM